David Adrian

The New Economic Realities...

2009-12-19T23:42:58Z

The Same As The Old!

This week in U.S. News, there was an article on "How to Live Happily on 75 Percent Less" - an economic reality which all too many of us are going to need to face over the next decade, unless something nearly miraculous occurs. The article includes lots of happy-happy tips on how to get the same effect out of much-cheaper or do-it-yourself methods (something a few of us have been doing for years, and urging others to do), and much Pollyanna-ish rhapsodizing about things must be good, because they could be so much worse, but there was one part which, for the first time in days, brought me close to shouting at the computer screen. (Okay, so I have a short fuse. BFD.)

The Great Recession--which is technically over, economists insist--may be morphing into a broader epoch: the Great Humbling. Millions of Americans who felt prosperous just a few years ago are now coping with long-term unemployment, sharp cutbacks in living standards, foreclosure, bankruptcy, and a deep sense of failure. That could persist for years. "This is not like earlier recessions, where things fell, then they bounced back to where they used to be," says Dennis Jacobe, chief economist for the Gallup polling organization. "We haven't seen this before. It's the only time this has happened since the Great Depression."

First of all, if the recession is over already - less than a year after it officially began - then it can't really be called a "Great Recession", now can it? After all, many of us have already lived through longer recessions than that, and if that were the extent of it, harder ones as well.

But - as the add-on bit implies - the recession probably isn't really over. The phase we're in right now - a moderate upswing which shows all the hallmarks of being temporary - bears a strong resemblance to a phenomenon which economic historians and analysts refer to as a "dead cat bounce" - from the phrase "if it falls hard enough, even a dead cat will bounce." Economic analysts who aren't currently being paid to be professionally optimistic are cautiously skeptical of these claims that the downturn is over. They point out that there were rallies all through the Nineteen-Thirties as well... but those rallies didn't alleviate the major problems of that time; to wit: tight credit and high unemployment.

What conditions do we see in today's economy? Well, how about tight credit? I saw an article the other day on a national credit card company offering a new card program... with a top APR of 79.9%. Personal credit is as tight as it's been during my lifetime, and the housing market is no better, despite all federal efforts to the contrary. And, to be honest, I see no reason why credit should loosen up in the near term; the credit collapse was a clear indication that policies were not aligned with reality, and nothing which has happened since then would change that fact. The federal government has made funds available to allow financial institutions to continue lending money - on the proviso that they continue to lend it under the same failed policies (federally dictated policies, at that!) which landed us in this situation in the first place.

The functional definition of insanity is "doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result."

And how about high unemployment? Well, we currently have the highest unemployment rate this country has experienced since the Great Depression... with little prospect of that changing any time soon. Our Federal Cheerleaders are loudly trumpeting all of the jobs their programs have created... but the information which gets treated with the pianissimo approach is the fact that nearly all of those created jobs are of short duration - mostly less than fifteen days. Day labor is not going to cure unemployment, folks. In the meantime, those same Federal Cheerleaders are campaigning loud, long, and hard to put further burdens on both the employer (at all scales) and the individual worker. When these new insurance requirements go through, what, pray tell, will happen to the bottom lines of those businesses which provide jobs? And what will that do to the number of jobs which they can provide?

"We haven't seen this before. It's the only time this has happened since the Great Depression."

Okay, outside of the built-in contradiction this pair of sentences carries (If it happened during the Great Depression then we've seen it before, twit!), there's something to consider here. If this has happened before - and the chief economist for Gallup said it has, right there in black and white - then maybe it's time to consider that we may be going through the same thing? The economy is acting like it's in another depression. If it walks like a duck, and it quacks like a duck, perhaps we shouldn't insist on keeping it in a goldfish bowl?

A day in the life...

2009-12-12T00:09:39Z

Okay, it's Friday... which means that Kestrelcat is at work and I'm watching JT for the day. It's been a good day so far, with a trip down to Rainy Day so the boys could acknowledge the dominion of their Baby Overlord - their phrasing, not mine - and then back home.

About ten minutes ago, he started fussing, but apparently didn't want his bottle - refused it pretty clearly. So, I sat him up on his rug in the middle of the floor and gave him a couple of his toys. No joy, or not much. He'd play for a couple of seconds, and then put whatever it was aside and start muttering - not crying, but clearly discontent. Bored, was the impression I got.

So I popped up my music program on the computer (best sound system in the place) and brought up Bond, intending it as a placeholder while I searched out something more to his taste.

I don't think there's likely to be anything more to his taste. He's sitting there, rocking out hard (literally; he's nearly headbanging the rug) and shaking the maraca/rattle Kestrelcat found for him, in pretty fair approximation of on-beat. (Let me be fair here: as energetic as Victory is, I'm not sure I could keep time with a single maraca! He's doing well for seven months.)

I think I'll stack up some TTF to follow this album. By then, KC should be home... and probably ready for sleep, given the way the weather has messed with her this week.

Obamanomics in Action, Part Two

2009-12-08T18:13:02Z

From today's press releases: New Obama plans: 'spend our way out' of downturn.

Does this bother anyone else the way it bothers me? What would this mean applied on a personal, rather than federal, level? "Our household budget is really kinda strained this month, honey, so we need to replace the water heater and the window panes and reshingle the roof." Uh, what? Has this man never had to balance a budget?

I don't see this downturn ending for quite some time. Not unless we default and remonetize - the national equivalent of going bankrupt and walking on debt. And even then, the effects are going to last a long time.

A rare example...

2009-06-17T16:29:55Z

Okay, I have to say this: Donte Stallworth has managed to impress me.

Not with the DUI that led to this whole mess - never that. But in the actions he's taken since that horribly immature, tragic and idiotic decision... as his attorney said, he's acted as a man, as opposed to the spoiled little entitlement-whore boy that all too many of today's celebrities are. He stopped at the scene, he called 911 - despite the fact that he had to know what it would mean for him - he cooperated fully with the authorities when they tested him for intoxication. Despite the poor decision which led to this situation, he behaved with dignity and maturity ever since, and he's said that he's going to abide by all the provisions of the court decision.

In the society of today's celebrity culture, this is a nearly aberrant display of adulthood and responsibility. I would be much happier with Mr. Stallworth being held up as an example to emulate for today's youth than, well, fill in the blank with most of the celebrated icons out there right now...

Obamanomics in action

2009-06-14T23:00:39Z

Letter from Granddad:

John is 63 years old and owns his own business. He is a
Life-long Republican and sees his dream of retiring next
Year is now all but gone. With the stock market crashing and
All the new taxes coming his way, John knows he will be
Working for a good number more years.

John has a Granddaughter. Ashley is a recent college grad.
She drives a late model car, wears all the latest fashions,
And also likes going out and eating out a lot. Ashley
Campaigned hard for Obama, and after he won the election she
Made sure her Grandfather (and all other Republican family
Members) received more than an earful on how the world is
Going to be a much better place now that Obama won the election.

Ashley recently found herself short of cash and cannot pay
Her bills, again. As she has done many other times in the
Past, she e-mailed her Grandfather asking for some financial
Help. Here is his reply:

"Sweetheart,

I am replying to your request for more money. Ashley, you
Know I love you dearly and am sympathetic to your financial
Plight. Unfortunately, times have changed. With the election
Of President Obama, your Grandmother and I have had to set
Forth a bold new economic plan of our own....the 'Ashley
Economic Plan'. Let me explain. Your grandmother and I are
Highly productive, wage-earning tax payers. As you know, we
Have lived a comfortable life and in return have forgone
Many things like fancy vacations, luxury cars, etc. We have
Worked hard and were looking forward to retiring soon. But
This plan has changed. Your president is significantly
Raising our personal and business taxes. He says it is so he
Can give our hard earned money to other people. Do you know
What this means, Ashley? It means less income for us. Less
Income means we must cut back on many business and personal
Expenditures. One example is, we were forced to let go of
Our receptionist today. You know her. She always gave you
Candy when you visited my office. Did you know she worked
For us for the past 18 years? I can't afford her anymore.

That is a taste of the business side. Some personal economic
Affects of Obama's new taxation policies include none other
Than you. You know very well that over the years your
Grandmother and I have given you thousands of dollars in
Cash, tuition assistance, food, housing, clothing, gifts,
Etc., etc. By your vote, you have chosen another family over
Ours for help. Judging from your Email requesting more
Money, I recommend you call 202-456-1111. That is the direct
Telephone number for the White House. You yourself
Repeatedly told me I was foolish vote Republican. You said
Mr. Obama is going to be the people's president and is going
To help every American live a better life. Based upon
Everything you have told me and things we heard from him as
He campaigned, I am sure Mr. Obama will be happy to send a
Check or transfer money into your checking account. Have him
Call me for the transaction and account numbers, which by
Now I know by heart.

Perhaps you now can understand what I have been saying for
All my life: those who vote for the president should
Consider what the impact of an election will be on the
Nation as a whole, and not just be concerned with what they
Can get for themselves (welfare, etc.). What Obama voters
Don't seem to realize is all of the "government's" money he
Is 'redistributing' to illegal aliens and non-taxpaying
Americans (deemed "less fortunate") comes from tax money
Collected from income tax-paying families. Remember how you
Told me, "Only the richest of the rich will be affected"?
Guess what, honey? Because of our business, your Grandmother
And I are now considered to be the richest of the rich. On
Paper, it might look that way. But in the real world, we are
Far from it. But, as you said while campaigning for Obama,
Some people will have to carry more of the burden so all of
America can prosper.. You understand what that means, right?
It means that raising taxes on productive people results in
Them having less money. Less money for everything, including
Granddaughters.

Congratulations on your choice for "change". For future
Reference, I encourage you to attempt to add up the total
Value of the gifts and money you've received from us over
The years, and compare it to what you expect to get over the
Next four years from Mr. Obama.

Remember, we love you dearly... But from now on you'll need
To call the number referenced above when you need help.

Good luck, sweetheart.
Love,
Grampa.

PS: How was your recent trip to Jamaica ? I have never been
there but I hear it is lovely this time of year."

Okay, slow day at the headlines desk...

2008-12-22T14:31:54Z

"Officials recover black boxes from charred Denver jet"

Ain't it cute when they try to be cute?

To all my Portland area friends...

2008-12-14T20:07:56Z

It's snowing out there, starting to stick even on the paved areas, and the temperature is pretty much as high as it's going to be for the next 36 hours. So be careful if you absolutely must go out, and don't go out if you don't have to. If you're going to drive - which I heartily recommend against - go slow and allow more time than you think you need.

Me, I'm currently at work and giving serious consideration to leaving. As a matter of fact, I've already told my manager that, if it's still coming down like this on my next break, I'm taking off. And the weather report is already saying that's likely.

Take care, all. I'll catch you on the flipside. (Hopefully, I won't be the one flipping!)

A line out of context...

2008-11-08T21:34:07Z

I figure it's either a stepladder or duck-tape.

From today's headlines - Fed chairman: Approve bailout plan or risk recession

2008-09-23T22:25:10Z

Well, at this point I have to think: maybe it's time.

Another side...

2008-09-11T17:22:46Z

Okay, I just got done reading Lyndsey Parker's take on the Kaitlyn Maher phenomenon (see here: new.music.yahoo.com/blogs/realityrocks/98433/kaitlyn-maher-the-kids-not-all-right). And I have to say: I agree with her. Kaitlyn's parents need to be slapped with a wet halibut until they WAKE UP. They're setting their daughter up for one of two paths - either she's going to learn the hard way about losing in the big, high-stakes world of the grown-ups, or (and possibly worse) she'll win - and land in a million-dollar-a-year contract to perform, for an hour and a half a night, every night, in Vegas. The girl's a four-year-old, people. Who in their right mind could consider this a good thing? (Come to think of it, what venue in Vegas is going to be willing to host such a blatently child-exploitative act? If I was on the controlling committee of such a business, I'd certainly be telling anyone who brought me this idea that, one, they were nuts, and two, if they ever brought me something of that nature again they would be fired in the most public and messy way possible, with all the reasons published. To me, this is not much removed from, and is morally/ethically identical to, child prostitution.)

But getting away from that, I feel the need to comment on another side of the video linked in that blog entry. While Kaitlyn is not yet ready for this sort of prime-time exposure, there was another person there who clearly is ready, and is a class act (in terms of manners, at least - I haven't seen his act) on top of that. When Flambeaux was called forward with Kaitlyn, he already knew his fate - you could read it in his expression. He knew he hadn't made the cut, which was why he'd been paired opposite the cute little girl that no one would dare vote against... and yet he gave almost no indication of that realization, he went up in front of the crowd with her, and he smiled doing it. He knew he had lost, and he still went out graciously and did his job with class and style. And when the verdict was announced against him, he gave Kaitlyn an honest smile and a hug, and he said something to her - I couldn't tell what, because his mouth was concealed by her head - that helped boost her flagging confidence and made her smile a little less of an effort. And let me say this loud and clear: To lose to someone else, and then have the character to honestly and genuinely congratulate them and give them a bit of support to go on beyond you, is a rare bit of character these days. Flambeaux demonstrated that, and I sincerely hope that any and all professional talent scouts who may have been watching have taken note - I know nothing about his talent, but talent can be learned. That sort of personality and attitude is a much rarer thing, and much more valuable in any sort of cooperative undertaking. Regardless of what I was doing, that is the sort of person I'd want by my side, watching my back and helping do the job. The man's a class act, and deserves respect and success wherever he chooses to take that act.

This is a warning!

2008-05-28T00:15:07Z

I just received an e-mail purporting to be from the IRS, regarding my Economic Stimulus Rebate payment. The sender wanted me to click on a link in the message, ostensibly to go to an information verification form so the payment would be sped up. I'm passing this message along, specifically meant for all US citizens and residents who read my journal.

THE IRS DOES NOT COMMUNICATE VIA E-MAIL!

If you receive such an e-mail, do NOT click on any links it may contain. Either delete said message unopened, or forward it to phishing@irs.gov so that their fraud department can deal with the perpetrators.

"Verifying" the sort of information such forms request can allow the perpetrators access to your funds and your financial information. With that information, these people can not only drain your bank account(s), they can also open fraudulent account in your name, running up debts which you will then have to contest or otherwise legally handle. This can range from an annoying hassle to a (potentially very) expensive legal undertaking. Do not be taken in by such scams!

If you've already been fooled by such a tactic, I would advise you to contact the IRS (if their name was used), and possibly your local District Attorney's office and/or your local FBI office (as such schemes are legally classified as wire fraud and thus fall, at least partially, into the FBI's jurisdiction). Any of these offices should be able to help you, and such services are part of what you pay taxes for.

The weather

2008-01-15T14:47:13Z

Galadrion here, reporting from work.

I just got here, walking in as opposed to biking, and boy am I glad I opted that way. Not only is it rather chilly out there (below freezing), but the humidity is rediculously high for the temperature... which adds up to one thing: icy patches everywhere. Slid several times on the way, but I was taking it easy so I never actually fell. (Kestrel, be careful out there today - and at all costs avoid those stairs at Streets of Tannasborne: they're gonna be deathtraps today!) Here's how bad it was: I saw two seperate accidents on a two-mile walk, at five freakin' AM! On a road which is nearly deserted at that hour, yet.

Right, enough of that.

Do you people who drive realize just how much you miss that way? Okay, so it was cold, and I was out in it for... well, forty-five minutes this morning; it's usually a half-hour walk, but as I said I was taking it slow. But the cold isn't really too bad out there, and with a little planning, you can dress for it pretty easily. But as I was walking in, it started snowing - little tiny flakes just drifting down, pretty and gentle. I'm willing to bet that the people whipping past me (at way too high a speed for these conditions, incidentally - as two people illustrated quite pointedly) either didn't see it at all, or only saw it as yet another annoyance. It seems a shame, really. There's so much out there that you really ought to take the time to look at, but nearly no one does any more.

Case in point: as I was crossing Rock Creek, I heard an owl hoot - very clearly. Too clearly: normally, they're fairly far back into the trees, but this one wasn't. I stopped and took a look in that direction, and there was this simply huge owl sitting on a tree limb not more than twenty feet from me, just watching. He (?) met my eyes, blinked a couple of times, and then stretched out his wings and took off, circling behind me and winging off across the road into the trees. Beautiful. And nothing I'd have ever seen in a car.

No real point to this, but it was a nice experience. Get out there, folks. There's a whole world to see, and it won't wait for you...

Snicker! How did they know?

2008-01-12T03:32:45Z

My Peculiar Aristocratic Title is:
His Most Serene Highness Lord Galadrion the Feline of Mabe Burnthouse
Get your Peculiar Aristocratic Title

Just a quick announcement...

2007-10-13T18:56:35Z

Happy Birthday, Gneech and Kinsfire!

That is all.

And another one has answered the Last Casting Call...

2007-09-18T00:45:37Z

Brett Somers has died.

I really liked her, especially for her appearances (and interaction with Charles Nelson Reilly) on The Match Game. God rest you, dear lady, and thank you for all the laughs.

Scha-WING!

2007-08-04T03:25:00Z

Well, today kestrelcat and I did what we've been planning on doing sometime this summer - we just weren't certain when we were going to go through with it.

We went into town today, to Bike 'N' Hike, and bought new bicycles. Nice ones, too - disc brakes, rapid-fire shifters, cargo racks on the backs... but most of all, the SHINY!

Seriously, any of my friends in the Portland area, I can make this recommendation to you with no problems - the Beaverton area Bike 'N' Hike is probably the best place in this area I could send you if you're interested in getting a bicycle. Friendly, knowledgeable sales folks, who aren't pushy but also aren't afraid to speak up and let you know if they think they see you about to make a mistake. (I probably would have walked out with a bike with too short a frame, but the guy said, "Hey, wait a minute - I'd like to see you on this one before I'd be happy about selling it to you." Turns out the frame was two inches too short for me - easy enough to ride out of the store on, but it'd raise merry hell with my knees over the long run.) They also didn't have the bikes we wanted in the sizes we needed in the store... so they had them brought over from one of the other Portland area stores, free of charge. Didn't charge us for installing the cargo racks, either, and it involved actual parts modification, carried out in-store while we waited.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to getting use out of the new shiny. This is our major mode of transportation, and having bikes that have a full range of gears, that don't jump teeth, that brake safely in all weathers... this is going to make our lives much easier and more pleasant.

A question for the ages...

2007-04-27T00:53:06Z

So, I was cleaning out my spam box, and an odd thought occurred to me, so I'm sharing it with all of you.

Does anyone else find the concept of "soft Viagra" as discordant as I do?

I'm not sure what I should feel.

2006-07-11T20:30:18Z

Syd Barret is dead.

Hmm...

2006-07-02T01:02:44Z

LIVE TRUMPS 1.1

watch Galadrion fight

CREATE YOUR CARD

Oh, my. This is WONDERFUL!

2006-01-13T06:15:50Z

www.skary.net

I'm hoping some of you who read this can help me...

2006-01-02T04:41:23Z

I'm asking for help from the people who read my Livejournal because I've managed to formulate a question which I cannot answer. I'm hoping one (or more) of you will have better success.

While at work today, I found myself tossing around various concepts, free-associating a bit, and eventually the process turned to analogies. I'm sure most of you understand the concept: A is to B as C is to D. Well, I managed to come up with one to which I either don't have the answer, or I can't bring it to mind.

? is to hedonist as sadist is to masochist.

For the life of me, I simply can't come up with a word that fits under that question mark. The closest I come is Heinlein's "water-brother", from Stranger in a Strange Land, but that concept is far too loose for what I have in mind.

By preference, I'd prefer to have the word in English; failing that, in some human language - non-fictional. Is this truly such a rare concept among human beings that a species which cannot help verbalizing any idea it can conceive doesn't have a word for it? Or have I simply not encountered such a word?

Just got back in, and...

2005-12-10T09:44:45Z

I just got back in from seeing The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe with Beau Wolff, and I find I need to say this:

GO SEE THIS MOVIE! IF YOU ONLY SEE ONE MOVIE THIS YEAR, THIS NEEDS TO BE THE ONE!

*Ahem* Thank you all for excusing me for that outburst.

As some of you may already know, I've been waiting for this movie for nearly a year now. It's had me in a right state, half in frenzied anticipation, half in worried nervousness. I've loved the books for a quarter-century now, and I was concerned - no, downright terrified - that the production team was going to try to "Hollywoodize" the thing.

Well, they didn't. Or at least, not what I mean by the term. They treated the story as sacrosanct, just as Peter Jackson and his crew treated the Lord of the Rings cycle. They stuck to the story as faithfully as I could have asked - more faithfully, indeed, than I expected.

There were variations, predictably. Such were all but required, I'm afraid. But these alterations were very subtly done, smoothly integrated into the story and done, so far as I could discern, strictly to enhance the tale for modern (and especially modern American) audiences. For example, I hold up the first arc - really, the first two scenes - of the movie.

In the book, the story opens with Peter, Susan, Edmund, and Lucy arriving at the Professor's house and introduces the cast on this side of the wardrobe: the children, the Professor, Mrs. Macready and the three servants who never otherwise come into the story at all. The circumstances of the children's arrival are briefly refered to but it's assumed that the audience knows the history behind this event - not a safe assumption anymore, given the general short shrift history, especially any non-American history, is given in schools these days. So there is a short scene showing the Pevensie family weathering one of the raids of the Blitz, followed by another showing the evacuation of London's children. It's only during the third scene that the movie actually catches up with the start of the book. But these two additional scenes set up the story for audiences which haven't the historical background to appreciate why these children have been sent away from their family home and their mother. All in all, I cannot fault the scriptwriters or the production crew for this minor addition, and it really helps to set the tone for the rest of the story.

The only other variation I could really spot came much later in the movie, after Aslan's return. I was mildly disappointed to note that Dionysius and the Maeneads were cut from the story, though the movie doesn't particularly suffer from the trimming - really, their part in the story was minor to begin with, and would have been a bit confusing to some. (Not to mention that it could have confused the rating a bit. Having fauns prancing around sans clothing is one thing - after all, nothing particularly offensive is on display, unless you really object to bare male chests. But the Maeneads tend to be more than a bit over-the-top for juvenile consumption by today's standards, and toning them down would effectively be cutting out their main impact anyway.)

There were a few other minor details where the movie didn't quite match up to my memories of the books, but they were so minor that I'm perfectly willing to admit that my memory may well be the item at fault. As an example, I though that the movie made it a bit more obvious that the Professor was indeed Digory from The Magician's Nephew - the character made it fairly plain from his earliest appearance that he did indeed believe Lucy, which was a compelling argument (from my point of view) that he had prior knowledge of Narnia and that he was aware that there was a possible or even probably connection between the wardrobe and the other world. (As I recall, it was never explicitly mentioned, but there were numerous strong hints that the wardrobe had been constructed from the wood of the tree which he and Polly had planted from the apple core... and the rings.) But as I said, this is a minor variation, and makes the story (and the Professor's character) even more compelling, and for this I find no fault with the movie.

All in all, I have to say that I'm most pleased with the way the movie turned out. I'm definitely going to be acquiring this one when it comes out on DVD, and seeing the others when they come out.

Oh, and if you happen to see it in the theater... stick around. There's one final scene after the credits roll, and you'll want to see it.

Now, THIS is a good remake.

2005-11-19T04:07:51Z

Hey, does anyone remember that "All Your Base" movie that used to be so big? *Quickly ducks thrown objects* HEY! Some of those were squishy!

No, I'm not going to dredge up the original. But this is a very good remake of the concept, and well worth watching. (Even if it is somewhat long. Make sure you have about ten minutes free before starting it. It's not quite that long, but almost.)

The real beauty of it is that it appears to be almost completely redone: it looks like they did all-original animation work, and I'm certain they did at least the vocals. I'm reasonably sure they actually redid the music itself, too - at least, it sounds enough unlike the original that I don't think they did a kareoke remix. And I'm usually pretty good about stuff like that.

That's it, I'm done...

2005-11-18T06:12:27Z

I'm throwing in the towel for NaNoWriMo - I'm just too far behind to make up the lost time, and the next ten days aren't conducive to making it up anyway. Not that I'm giving up on this one - it's an idea I've been toying with for a while now anyway, so I'll keep it going. But I'm not going to make the deadline.

I've decided I'm going to do it

2005-10-03T21:37:37Z

I'm going to participate in National Novel Writer's Month again. I skipped last year, owing to overwhelming prior commitments, but the heck with it! This year, I'm going for it! I'll be signing up as soon as I can get access to the sign-up page - should be tomorrow some time, according to the latest news. Oh, Heavens to Murgatroyd. I'm jumping back into this? I gotta be crazy... Anybody got a spare plot bunny going cheap?